Predicting the 2024-25 Premier League

The Premier League is back. After a summer full of exciting international football, and the promotion of clubs Ipswich, Southampton, and Leicester City set, it’s time for me to predict the entire Premier League table once again, starting at the top and working our way down towards relegation.

You simply cannot vote against Pep Guardiola and Manchester City. In the last seven seasons, City have won the Premier League 6 times. It took a COVID pandemic for City’s reign of terror to be temporarily put on hold. While their only transfer into the club was Savio, I expect more to come in the January window. We could see the result of the Manchester City FFP tank their season, but I’m not banking on it.

Arsenal were having a season of glory last year before falling at the last hurdle to finish second. It’s strange to see some of the biggest clubs in England being relatively quiet in the transfer window, as Arsenal has only made four signings, with Ricardo Calafiori being the biggest signing of the four. Of the remaining 19 teams after Man City, Arsenal have the best chance of knocking them down in 2024.

Here we are seeing a theme that has been common in the Premier League over the last few seasons, that being a drop off in points from position two to position three. Liverpool have entered a new era in the club’s history, with legendary manager Jurgen Klopp deciding to retire from coaching at the end of last season.

Arne Slot’s style of football will be a welcoming change from the mechanized style played by Jurgen Klopp. However, it’s going to take some time for Liverpool to reach their top potential in 2024. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Reds have a rough start, but a strong showing after the January transfer window. As of writing, Liverpool have not made any signings in this window. 

I don’t know where Chelsea is getting this money from. Chelsea have made some quality signings during this transfer window, my favorite being Marc Guiu from Barcelona for 5 million Euros. Guiu is three years younger than me and is coming over from the greatest football academy in the world, La Masia.

I don’t know what impact you can expect from him in year one, but this is one of those signings for Enzo Maresca’s project at Stamford Bridge. Now just imagine if they get the deal for Victor Osimhen completed. Chelsea could be scary in 2024.

Newcastle had a disappointing 2023-24 campaign, crashing out of the Champions League in the group stages, and falling from 4th place to 6th place in the Premier League over the course of a season. This season, the Magpies are going to benefit from that drop, as that fall combined with Manchester United winning the FA Cup means that Newcastle will not play European football this season.

This will allow them to focus more on the Premier League, without having to put your best team forward against teams on the grandest stage. After spending last season on loan with Newcastle, Lewis Hall joins the club on a permanent basis, as Newcastle will make their push back to European Football in 2024.

Manchester United were one of the largest disappointments last season. An eighth-place finish should have seen them be without European football this season, but an FA Cup win catapulted them to Europa League. United have made a couple of the biggest splashes of the summer, getting world class defender Matthijs de Ligt for just 42,000,000 euros.

Leny Yoro, Joshua Zirkzee, and Noussair Mazraoui are all good signings for Manchester squad that is going to need depth to play another season of Europa League ball. Multiple weak points in the Red Devils squad are gone, and United should be able to push towards another season in Europe this year. I just can’t see them breaking into top 5.

Props to Tottenham for finishing fifth last season and qualifying for Europa League. Here is my problem with Spurs, I don’t trust them. There is already some dysfunction from last season, where manger Ange Postecoglou called out fans for wanting Spurs to throw the final game of the season. Surely this disfunction will carry over into 2024. With Yves Bissouma being suspended for the laughing gas video, a loss for Spurs would surely see fans turn on Postecoglou.

I don’t see Spurs competing for Europa or Champions League this season, but if they do, keep your eye on Dominic Solanke. He’s a fun player and could be a major threat for Tottenham in 2024.

Aston Villa were a pleasant surprise in 2023-24.  Unai Emery’s squad was able to break into the top 4 over Manchester United, Chelsea, Tottenham, and Newcastle United. After qualifying for the Champions League, Villa find themselves in an unpleasant situation. With the new Champions League format beginning this season, Villa will have to play two more games than they would have needed to in last years UCL.

Even with their 11 signings in this transfer window, I see Villa falling into the same trap Newcastle did last season. The squad depth doesn’t have the quality to balance Champions League matches with Premier League matches. Villa are too talented to put in the bottom half of the table, but I see them being overworked to the point they don’t maintain that position in Europe. Especially if they make it out of the first UCL stage

The Common theme of this transfer window has been that more of the mid table teams have been making big moves. The Irons were one of the many teams that did this. Crysencio Summerville is the signing of the summer for West Ham. The former Leeds United star balled out in the championship, and West Ham need to improve their goal scoring abilities if they want to make their way back to Europe. 

When I started watching football in 2018, you couldn’t have convinced me that known yo-yo clubs Fulham could finish inside the top 10. Flash forward six years, I love what the Cottagers have done. The loss of Joao Palhinha is undoubtedly huge for this team, and Fulham boss Marco Silva has said they will find a replacement.

Emile Smith Rowe is a quality signing for Fulham. While he didn’t get the playing time or chance at Arsenal, going to a smaller club like Fulham where he can be the star could be a best-case scenario for both sides. I think of Jesse Lingard’s loan spell at West Ham, while Lingard still didn’t pan out, that short-term loan at West Ham was the stuff of legend.

All Fulham needs to do is turn some of the losses from last season into draws this season. You can’t have 17 losses to 6 draws and be top 10, but this is the year.

The Cherries have grown on me. The signing of Evanilson fills the hole left by Dominic Solanke. In 42 appearances in 2023 for Porto, Evanilson scored 25 goals. I love the Daniel Jebbison signing, 1.5 million for someone who could be sold for insane profit down the line. Bournemouth still have money left from the Solanke sale, so we will have to wait and see what they do.

The same thing I said about Fulham can be said here, you can’t have 9 Draws to 16 losses and make the top 10. Maybe I have them jump too much, but Bournemouth is one of the teams I am excited about in 2024.

Last season, I had Brighton at 13-12-13, and I was one win off getting that result spot on. This season, I’m essentially doubling down on Brighton. They’re a good team, but right now I don’t think they’re a team that can take that step to the next level.

I’m not going to knock Brighton because they will somehow find a way to end up in Europe just to spite me, but I’m doubling down on Brighton this season.

Why did Liverpool let Fabio Carvalho go? I have literally no idea. However, Liverpool’s loss is Brentford’s gain. Carvalho is a young player with incredible potential, and should Ivan Toney stay at Brentford—even for just the first half of the season—the Bees can avoid the relegation battle. New signing Igor Thiago is out for the rest of 2024 with a knee injury, which could persuade Brentford to keep Toney. However, I’m not convinced that Brentford will be able to get out of the lower mid-table range.

Wolves are an intriguing side entering the season. With the sales of Max Kilman and Pedro Neto, Wolves added 94 million euros to their potential spending. Tommy Doyle moved to Wolves on a permanent deal after spending last season with the club on loan.

There is just nothing exciting about this Wolverhampton squad. But I believe they will survive a relegation battle.

In the past, I’ve had an anti-Crystal Palace bias. While they had Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze last season, Olise is gone and Eze is next. Palace does have some money left over from that Olise sale, and I don’t think they are done yet in this transfer window. Ismaila Sarr is an addition on the wing, and I’m intrigued to see how the Barcelona product Chadi Riad does in London.

I’ve never been high on Crystal Palace, I don’t see that changing here. They aren’t bad enough to be relegated, but they aren’t really good enough to make it to the top half of the table.

Last season, Everton received an 8-point deduction for violations of Financial Fair Play. Fortunately for the Toffees, they played good enough to avoid the relegation zone in 2023-24. If Everton were to face more violations this year, they’d be fighting for survival.

Everton’s offseason is about losses more than gains. With Lewis Dobbin and Amadou Onana gone, Everton have made some moves, but I don’t know how I feel about them. Omari Benjamin on a free could be a huge move when we look back on it in five years’ time, but these are long term moves for the Everton project, which I can’t expect to succeed immediately.

Ipswich Town return to the Premier League for the first time since 2001-02 after earning back-to-back promotions. While manager Enzo Maresca left for Chelsea, I’m a huge fan of the Tractor Boys. Kalvin Phillips on loan, Liam Delap and Omari Hutchinson are good, young signings. Ipswich are fighting for survival from day one.

What I love about Ipswich’s vision is they aren’t trying to build a Premier League squad from scratch. Remember Nottingham Forest’s first season in the Prem? They built an entire new squad and nearly got relegated because nobody meshed together. Ipswich is finding pieces to fit into their puzzle, and I want it to work desperately for them.

There is nothing I would want more than Leicester to stay up. I just don’t see it. Kieran Dewsbury-Hall is a big loss for the Foxes, and I don’t see someone in the wings to step up and take on his role.

There could be some magic for Leicester, but I think we’re all blinded by the nostalgia of Leicester’s unpredictable 2016 Title run.

Goodbye and good riddance to Nottingham Forest. There is not much for me to say about this team. I don’t think they are good. Since returning to the Premier League, they finished no higher than 16th.  I wholeheartedly believe that if Forest gets into danger, they will try to make desperate changes to their squad, and it just won’t work.

It would be nice to see Russell Martin’s Saints stay up this season, but there is always one promoted team that is in over their heads in the Prem. Maybe that is Ipswich, but I’m betting on Southampton to finish last. They’ve done the same thing that Nottingham Forest did in 2022-23, signing 14 new players in the summer window alone. What really hurts them is that some of these players won’t be joining until 2025 anyways, so if they do make an impact, it might be too little too late to save Southampton this season.

Recap:

And with that, the 2024 Premier League season kicks off this afternoon at 3 PM. I’ll return to this in May to dissect what went right, what went wrong, and the unexpected glory of the Premier League season.