NFL SEASON OUTLOOK: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

The New England Patriots have entered a new era. With Bill Belichick gone and the Jerod Mayo officially underway in Foxboro, the new regime is looking to get back to the old success that New England sports fans so desperately crave. But what does this year bring for the Patriots? Well, it’s not pretty.

Predicted Record: 3-14-0 (Last in AFC East)

Controversial as this record prediction may be, this is a feeler year for the New England Patriots. It’s an opportunity to find out what pieces they have, and what they need to improve on. The Patriots selection North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye 3rd overall in this year’s draft, and the Jerod Mayo regime has done something that Bill Belichick didn’t do with Mac Jones: put talent around the quarterback.

A New Look Offense

Alex Van Pelt is an interesting hire for the Patriots, as Van Pelt has never been a member of the Patriots organization. This signals a much-needed shift in the team’s offensive philosophy. The system that had been working during the Tom Brady era collapsed when Josh McDaniels wasn’t the OC in the Mac Jones era. Instead of relying on the quarterback to run the offense while working with mediocre talent, there’s an emphasis on surrounding Drake Maye with talented wide receivers.

With an incredibly deep Wide receiver class, the Patriots took Washington’s Ja’Lynn Polk in round 2, and UCF’s Javon Baker in round 4.

A lot of Polk’s college highlights are of him being wide open, which is not going to happen as often in the NFL. However, what stood out to me in Polk’s highlight tape is how well he handles contact. He’s unafraid to get hit. The ideal situation would be for Drake Maye to not throw him hospital passes, but if he does, Polk will go up and grab the ball.

UCF’s Javon Baker was drafted in the fourth round. Baker is the deep threat that the Patriots have been lacking since—I want to say—Brandin Cooks? With Drake Maye having a cannon for an arm, this pick adds another dimension to an offense that has been lackluster since pre-COVID. While the expectation is that Jacoby Brissett will start the season for the Patriots, I would not be surprised to see Maye go out there at some point when the Patriots are out of playoff contention.

Sneaky Pick: Florida State tight end Jaheim Bell is going to be a stud.

A Late Note:

In the midst of writing all of these predictions, sixth round draft pick Joe Milton has seemingly become the “Fan favorite” of the quarterbacks. “Bazooka Joe” as Jacoby Brissett called him, Milton has had better practices so far than Drake Maye. This has been used by some fans to say that the Pats made a mistake taking Maye but let me reiterate a point. Drake Maye is not going to be the full-time starter this year.

He might get a game or two of action late in the season, but the only two ways Maye plays is if Brissett gets hurt, or the team is that bad they decide to put him out there. Maye has always been the “project” quarterback. I understand that the fans don’t want to be in a Mac Jones situation, but that was more about improper coaching than lack of talent. Jerod Mayo should be well aware of this, so there should be no expectation that Maye is going to be starting caliber in year one.

 It’s a new look offense, but the defense is the same story.

Saving Grace

Jerod Mayo was always going to be the next head coach of the New England Patriots. Seeing how the Patriots defense performed last season, it makes sense.  

Despite the offensive struggles from last season, the Patriots defense was up the standard. The Patriots had a three-game stretch where they didn’t allow more than 10 points—they lost all these games—but the defense performed without their two best players: Christian Gonzalez and Matt Judon.

The loss of Matt Judon limited the pass rush of the Patriots, as the team struggled to create pressure or get sacks on the level that a top defense in the league should. Christian Barmore led the team with 8.5 sacks as a defensive lineman, and Josh Uche struggled with just 3 sacks. Still, the Patriots had a top ten defense in the league, if only the offense kept up.

Building Blocks

NFL Free Agency saw the Patriots take an interesting approach to signing talent. Stick with what you know. It’s what the Patriots have done for years, but this time it made sense. Michael Onwenu deserved to be paid, and as the best offensive lineman for the Patriots last year, they needed to bring him back.

Hunter Henry is a security blanket at tight end, bringing him back at 9 million a year is a lot but for the cost of giving Drake Maye some confidence, it’s worth it. He looks solid during training camp, and Jacoby Brissett has mentioned how he loves having some good tight ends.

Kyle Dugger is back where he should be. While his 2023 season wasn’t as productive as his 2022 season, he’s an important piece in the secondary.

The Antonio Gibson signing from Washington calls for more receiving out of the backfield. He’s a nice compliment to Rhamondre Stevenson—who also resigned with the Patriots this offseason.  The big worry is that this becomes the Ezekiel Elliott signing 2.0. Elliott was signed to be the primary back inside the 20, but the Patriots rarely got inside the red zone.

Recap:

The new era in New England is upon us. For the first time in my life, the New England Patriots head coach is not Bill Belichick. It’s time to find a new identity. It will take time. This won’t be a good season for Patriots fans, but the expectation shouldn’t be to win games. 4-13 means a high draft pick—which they could trade to a quarterback needy team for more capital. Be patient, Patriots fans. The time is coming for something big. (maybe even a Brandon Aiyuk trade?)