NFL Season Outlook: 4. Denver Broncos

Over the past two seasons, no team has been as much a disappointment as the Denver Broncos. After signing Russell Wilson to a massive 5-year, $245 million contract, the Broncos played to a 13-21 record since 2022. Sean Payton couldn’t get the team over the hump, and the Broncos released Wilson—taking on an EIGHTY-FIVE MILLION DOLLAR cap hit for 2024. With a new quarterback in Bo Nix, the Broncos are taking a step back to take a step forward in the future.

Predicted Record: 5-12-0 (Last in AFC West)

Is There a QB Battle?

Bo Nix was drafted 12th overall in this year’s NFL Draft out of Oregon. During my pre-draft mocks, I made the argument that Bo Nix might honestly be in a better position than QB Michael Penix Jr. because he didn’t get embarrassed by Michigan in the Championship game. The thing I don’t like about Bo Nix is this, he’s 24. That’s the beginning of some quarterbacks’ prime years. Still, I think he is talented enough to be QB1 on this Broncos team—that doesn’t mean much with this team.

Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson are the other two options for the Broncos. There’s one important positive to either of these two starting: letting Bo Nix learn. Although he is 24, letting him learn the playbook from the sidelines is the best way to not screw this draft pick up. There’s nothing impressive about Jarrett Stidham, but the advantage to playing him as the starter is he played for the Broncos last season.

Meanwhile, Zach Wilson, the former number 2 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft was traded to the Broncos in the offseason. Wilson may have had a bad tenure with the Jets—who hasn’t—but Denver brings a fresh start to a downward spiraling career. Wilson does have a cannon for an arm and is more mobile than Jarrett Stidham. The problem is, like Stidham, he is nothing special.  Speaking of nothing special…

What is this Offense?

The Broncos had to trade Jerry Jeudy to the Cleveland Browns this offseason. I’ll talk more about that move when it comes time to talk about Cleveland, but getting only a fifth and sixth round pick is insane. Courtland Sutton has been a solid receiver, and now has to take on the added pressure lost with Jeudy gone. Former Detroit Lions Wide Receiver Josh Reynolds signed with Denver this offseason, but I don’t think of that as a needle-moving signing.

A comment I removed from my final edit for my Patriots preview was this: sometimes grabbing a wide receiver a new QB has chemistry with can do wonders for them, and New England should have done that. Already having that trust in a receiver to make the play gives a rookie quarterback a certain level of comfort. See Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, Tua and Jaylen Waddle, or Jalen Hurts and Devonta Smith. The Broncos actually did it by drafting Oregon wide receiver Troy Franklin in the fourth round. Should they go for Bo Nix as the starter, he’ll definitely be able to ball out with one of the fastest receivers in the draft.

Running Back Javonte Williams is the star of this offense. Health is a concern for Williams, as he missed 13 games in 2022, but only missed one last season. His yards per attempt dropped almost a full yard from 2022 (4.3) to 2023 (3.6). It’s definitely something to watch for, as the Broncos probably should be relying a little more on the run game while having a rookie quarterback.

On a happier note, the Broncos have a decent offensive line. Is Quinn Meinerz a Viking—the Scandinavian explorer kind, not the Minnesota kind—possibly. Certainly, Meinerz is a top offensive guard in the league, and was just paid for it. Not bad for someone who was playing at a D3 school three years ago. I like Garrett Bolles, he hasn’t had a season quite like he did in 2020, but he’s serviceable. Is Mike McGlinchey good? I don’t know.

“I don’t know” is a fairly common theme in this offense, hell maybe even with the rest of this team.

The Broncos Defense

Another season with Vance Joseph as the defensive coordinator for the Denver Broncos. They held three teams under 10 points in 2023, including the Kansas City Chiefs at one point. However, they were 30th in run defense last season, and 23rd in passing defense. 26 Takeaways are tied for 10th most in the NFL, so there are pieces to build around.

Pat Surtain II is easily the best player on this defense. The Broncos 1st round pick in 2021 has been a hit in Denver. Allowing just three touchdowns last season, Surtain will face off against some of the best wide receivers in the NFL this year, like Mike Evans and Davante Adams, as well as former teammate Jerry Jeudy.

I’m slightly baffled that Justin Simmons is still a free agent, and that the Broncos haven’t tried to bring him back on a small deal. The past two seasons haven’t been great for Simmons, but it looks like Brandon Jones will take over Simmons’s free safety role.

The John Franklin-Myers trade might end up looking like a steal. Only sending a 2026 sixth-round pick to the Jets and restructuring his deal to only cost $15million against the cap over the next two years, if Franklin-Myers can find his form from 2021 or 2022, the Broncos are getting a pass-rusher that will make an impact.

Recap:

Similar to the Patriots, the Broncos are in the midst of a rebuild. While the AFC West might be a little bit worse than last season talent wise, the Broncos don’t have enough to push up the standings in my eyes. Next year might be a different story, but 2024 is a year to figure out what the Broncos have. 5-12-0, the third overall pick in the NFL Draft could get them a nice trade haul, or a weapon on defense.