Looking Back on My Premier League Predictions

Back in August, I made a bet with a group of friends, where we would predict the final standings of the 2023-24 Premier League Season. Flash forward nine months, the Premier League season is over. With that in mind, let’s take a look at those predictions, Starting from the Bottom.

(Predicted Finish: 19th – 6 Wins, 5 Draws, 27 Losses – 23 Points)

There was a ton of talk going into the season that the three teams that were promoted to the Premier League were probably the “worst group” of teams to be promoted in years. Sheffield United ended up being the worst of them all. My justification for finishing 19th was simple: Sheffield didn’t sign anybody with Premier League experience. A year like this one shows the gap between—for the Americans—Division 1 to Division 2. Having no experience in the top division was the death of the Blades this year, as they were confirmed to be relegated after losing to Newcastle on April 27th. 

(Predicted Finish: 15th – 9 Wins, 11 Draws, 18 Losses – 38 Points)

Much like Sheffield United, Burnley was one of the three teams that was promoted to the Premier League entering the 23-24 Season. After seeing how Vincent Kompany willed Burnley back to the Prem and setting a record for earliest promotion clinch, I felt that the Belgian manager and former Center back could push this team into survival on willpower alone. Sadly, I was wrong. Had Burnley turned a couple of their 9 draws into wins, they would have survived another season. It’s back to the Championship for the Clarets

(Predicted Finish: 20th – 5 Wins, 5 Draws, 28 Losses – 20 Points)

Luton Town going on a miracle Premier League run was too good to be true. After a meteoric rise from being a club on the verge of financial collapse to playing in the Premier League, you had to wonder when Luton Town would taste defeat. My thoughts on Luton’s demise would be their budget. They are far poorer than any other club. From the “Football League World” in September, “Luton Town’s squad is valued at 73.3 million (pounds), 43.3 million less than the next lowest: Sheffield United” A survival for Luton would have been incredible, but unfortunately the run ends here.

(Predicted Finish: 12th – 10 Wins, 13 Draws, 15 Losses – 43 Points)

Had Nottingham Forest not received a four-point deduction, then they’d still be 17th.  I thought that Anthony Elanga and Matt Turner would be more impact players for this team, but Elanga struggled this year. Only scoring 5 goals in 35 appearances. While Elanga had been an outcast and Manchester United, with more time I believed he could have been a star in the making. He’s only 22 years old, there is time, but I would have loved for him to breakout this year.

(Predicted Finish: 14th – 9 Wins, 12 Draws, 17 Losses – 39 Points)

With Brentford losing on Sunday, I got the point total spot-on for Brentford. I barely touched on Brentford in my TikTok about this, but if I can remember, a lot of my reasoning for putting Brentford here was that I didn’t expect them to contend, but I couldn’t see them getting relegated. Striker Ivan Toney’s ban really soured my expectations for them, and had he been eligible to play the full season—as opposed to being reinstated in January—I think Brentford could have battled to be in the Top-10.

(Predicted Finish: 17th – 7 Wins, 9 Draws, 22 Losses – 30 Points)

Everton were a team that barely survived last season. Making them an obvious candidate for relegation this year. Fortunately for the Toffees, they played a solid season. Had they not been deducted eight points for a couple breaches of the English FA’s Financial Fair Play rules, they would have the potential to finish inside the Top-10 this season. I’m somewhat happy for Everton, but they doubled my prediction for their win total this year.

(Predicted Finish: 18th – 7 Wins, 8 Draws, 23 Losses – 29 Points)

What was I thinking? They had a bad summer transfer window and fired their manager days before the season. I thought this was going to be a season of disaster for Wolves. It went way better than I expected. They are another team that almost doubled my projected win total, and to be honest, I’m not even going to try and justify whatever I was thinking. This was a bad take.

(Predicted Finish: 13th – 10 Wins, 10 Draws, 18 Losses – 40 Points)

Fulham had been a yo-yo club—or a team that gets Promoted and immediately relegated from the Premier League—for years now. Aleksandar Mitrovic leaving for Al-Hilal did have me concerned for Fulham, but they have played a decent brand of Football all year. I’m not sure there has been one-player that has put the team on their back, but the Cottagers had an all-around decent season, and I got their positioning on the table right.

(Predicted Finish: 11th – 10 Wins, 14 Draws, 14 Losses – 44 Points)

Going into the final day of the season, I had the spot on the table right, but the Cherries loss to Chelsea dropped them.  These mid-table teams are the toughest to predict. There isn’t much thought that goes into it, but I expected them to beat up on some of the weaker teams in the Premier League, which is exactly what they did, getting 21 of their 48 points against the teams that finished in 15th-20th. Solid season for Bournemouth, who will play their third straight Premier League season after securing promotion in the 2021-22 season.

(Predicted Finish: 9th – 13 Wins, 12 Draws, 13 Losses – 51 Points)

Brighton are like the Tampa Bay Rays of the Premier League. They’ll develop players, sell them for sometimes twenty-two times that they paid for their services. I was incredibly close on this prediction for Brighton. Had they beaten Man United yesterday, I would have nailed their record. The Gulls just find ways to be successful. I like what Roberto De Zerbi has done for the Seagulls, and I definitely look forward to seeing what they do next season.

(Predicted Finish: 16th – 8 Wins, 12 Draws, 18 Losses – 36 Points)

I might have an unfair hatred of Crystal Palace. I loved Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze before the season, but I didn’t see this team as having enough to compete. Little did I know, Crystal Palace had four guys score over five goals—it doesn’t sound like a lot—but Palace had ten different goal scorers this year. Jean-Philippe Mateta led the Eagles with 16 goals, including a hat trick in Sunday's 5-0 destruction of European-bound Aston Villa. Palace have a young foundation that could be dangerous, if they stay together.

(Predicted Finish: 10th – 11 Wins, 16 Draws, 11 Losses – 49 Points)

Looking back at my notes, I had said that Harry Maguire—a Manchester United center back—was playing for West Ham United. I don’t know if that was a transfer rumor or a slip up on my end. Regardless, the Irons went out and had a productive first season since selling Declan Rice for 100 million euros.  While some fans were ready for West Ham to fall apart without him, the Irons had a respectable season. At times they were let down by the defense, but they have a ton of money to upgrade that, they could contend for a spot in European competition next season.

(Predicted Finish: 3rd – 25 Wins, 6 Draws, 7 Losses – 81 Points)

Talk about a letdown season. Just a year after finishing third in the Premier League, I expected Manchester United to do it all over again. After signing Mason Mount and seeing Erik Ten Hag start to gain control over the Red Devils locker room, I wouldn’t have expected them to fall out of European Competition altogether in the 2024-25 Season. That has happened, and their lighter schedule will hopefully lead to more domestic success next season.

(Predicted Finish: 7th – 17 Wins, 9 Draws, 12 Losses – 60 Points)

Ever since the Saudi Public Investment Fund purchased Newcastle, they’ve been trying to find their footing as one of the Premier League’s giants. That dream has not been achieved this year, as they crashed out of the Champions League in the group stage and will not be returning in 2024-25. I’d like to see Newcastle jump back up, but I will gladly take getting their positioning in the table right.

(Predicted Finish: 5th – 20 Wins, 9 Draws, 9 Losses – 69 Points)

If you’re wondering how stupid—or genius— I was to put Chelsea in 5th, now is the time where I admit that I am a Chelsea fan. It was nothing short of delusion. With that being said, I thought Moises Caicedo was going to be the next N’golo Kante. (He wasn’t). However, Chelsea started to figure it out as they played more. Midway through the season, they were 10th with 25 points.

(Predicted Finish: 8th – 16 Wins, 8 Draws, 14 Losses – 56 Points)

The “Bottlers” look like they are going to be in Europe this season. (They aren’t actually called the “Bottlers.” that name was unceremoniously given to them after “bottling” the 2015-16 Premier League title). Spurs have had themselves a nice season under Ange Postecoglou—who might be at war with the team’s Ultras. I thought Spurs would take a step back after club legend Harry Kane left for Bayern Munich, but they held up on their own. I’ll give credit where credit is due, props to Tottenham. 

(Predicted Finish: 6th – 17 Wins, 10 Draws, 11 Losses – 61 Points)

Two signings I said would be great for Aston Villa were Moussa Diaby and Youri Tielemans. From reading some Aston Villa fan pages, some Villans fans were not impressed by either player. Regardless, Unai Emery has done wonders for an Aston Villa side that finished 14th just two seasons ago. They did even better than I expected them to and have qualified for the Champions League next season.

(Predicted Finish: 2nd – 25 Wins, 8 Draws, 5 Losses – 83 Points)

Liverpool were a guaranteed Top-4 side going into the season, and they secured the right to play European football with their performance this season. Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai were my signings to watch going into the year, and they performed above the expectations of the Reds. They are about where I expected them, but Arsenal overperforming—we’ll get there—has them in third.

(Predicted Finish: 4th – 24 Wins, 3 Draws, 11 Losses – 75 Points)

Arsenal went on an incredible run this year. I loved the Declan Rice and Kai Havertz signings—for different reasons—and Bukayo Saka is one of the best players in England today. Props to Arsenal for a great season, but as a Chelsea fan, I hope to god they never finish this high again.

(Predicted Finish: 1st – 27 Wins, 6 Draws, 5 Losses – 87 Points)

Manchester City is the best team in England. They were a lock for first place. It was shocking to see Arsenal hold the one spot for so long this year, but Manchester City winning the Prem was never in doubt for me.

With that, the 2023-24 Premier League Season is over. Sheffield United, Burnley, and Luton Town have all been relegated. 2015-16 Champions Leicester City and Ipswich Town have been promoted, with either Leeds United or Southampton joining them. We'll return at the end of July to predict the 2024-25 Premier League Table